Post by Brian SmithPost by RickPost by shawnOn Thu, 28 Nov 2024 22:40:30 -0700, Brian Smith
Post by Brian SmithThread of tweets from Christian on Andy's probability analysis of Kyle
winning his way to the end. He agrees with the numbers based on Andy's
assumptions but faults him for poor communication and being too precise.
Christian thinks Andy presenting such a high degree of confidence with
his 6.25% figure is why Caroline didn't buy his analysis.
https://x.com/chubicki/status/1862214023384793415
I don't know that Christian is right. I would think Caroline's issue
would be the same one that I raised up in my other post I just made.
Which is that the math is correct, Andy doesn't take into account that
each player is different. So while the math said Kyle has 1/16th of a
chance of getting through the next 4 TCs that doesn't take into
account that this is a physical and mental game. Kyle has proven to be
great at challenges and so I would put his chances at maybe 50% of
winning out if they didn't vote him out at the last TC. Not because of
the math but because he's proven himself to be great at the challenges
from the physical aspect and that seems to be a major component of
every immunity challenge.
The math isn't necessarily right for various reasons (Lyle having a 1
in 2 chance each time is kind of pulled out of the air), but I do give
Andy credit for trying to sell the idea that Lyle is not an inevitable
IC winner for four more tribal councils. No one has ever really "won
out" quite like that, especially not in the new era, and especially
when you consider that many of the IC challenges aren't strictly
strength or endurance-based but require balance, puzzle skills and
other factors that don't necessarily favo0r Kyle. So I give Andy
credit for recognizing that the inevitability of Kyle winning
immunities is a myth, and it might make more sense to pick off more
strategic and manipulative players like Gen first.
But would Kyle go on a losing streak? Say he won immunity at F7, F6, and
F5 and then lost again at F4. Would Kyle lose at fire? Kyle winning out
to the end was far from a given but the odds he might win his way to the
end were high enough to make taking him out now the right move.
Let's not overlook the more important issue which is - could Kyle
actually win if he made final three. He was undeniably well-liked, but
would that be enough to win? He was not strategic, and he certainly
didn't make any of what you might call "moves". I'm also not sure he
really presents himself all that well. If Kyle goes to final three and
has to compete against a Rachel or a Genevieve, I don't think it's a
given that he wins.
I understand that he has won a few immunities and there was a fear he
could win out. But I don't think that was really likely, especially if
they start popping some puzzles into the final challenges. More
importantly, I'm not sure that would be enough to actually convince the
jury to vote for him.
Have we ever actually had a player like Kyle with his type of
personality and skill set actually win the game? People sometimes
compare Kyle to JT, but Stephen F. (who played with JT) says they are
not alike at all. Fishbach says JT was actually quite strategic and
smart, and he thinks Kyle is very different and playing a much simpler,
more straightforward game.
Post by Brian SmithPost by RickBut I do fault Andy for not reading the room and seeing that everyone
else wanted Kyle out. Andy is a smart guy in his way (and as someone
who supposedly works in AI research, you'd think he can't be as dumb
as he acts), but he is a terrible Survivor player, and the fact that
he's the only one who voted for Gen is kind of a bad look. I'm
convinced he's F3 zero-votes.
The only other player I see getting no votes at the end is Sam but he
hasn't been getting a F3 edit.
If Sam actually makes it to the end, I think he can make a good case for
himself. He's a professional reporter, so he surely can speak
articulately, and I imagine he can fashion a case for how he survived to
the end despite being a physical threat, and despite having his primary
alliance with Sierra exposed to early on. The players I don't see
getting any votes at the end are Andy and Sue.